Typhoon Megi Aims for Hong Kong

by Jonathan Erdman, Editorial Meteorologist

Updated: October 19, 2010 5:05 pm ET

West Pacific IR satellite image
Click image to enlarge and animate

Megi plowed into the northern Philippine island of Luzon Sunday night/early Monday morning, U.S. time as a very dangerous super typhoon. As expected, Megi fortunately tracked north of the Philippine capital, Manila (population: 1.6 million).

Photos: Images from the Philippines
Video: Menacing Megi Makes Landfall
Interactive Map: Megi satellite imagery


By Monday afternoon (U.S. time), Typhoon Megi emerged into the South China Sea after weakening to a category 2 typhoon during its trek across land.

Reintensification has already taken place now that Megi is over the warmer waters of the South China Sea.

On late Tuesday afternoon (U.S. time), Typhoon Megi had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph which is a category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

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Megi forecast path as of Tuesday afternoon (Click image for satellite imagery)
Image: Joint Typhoon Warning Center

The projected path has recently been fluctuating and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has shifted Megi's second landfall near or north of the city of Hong Kong (population: 7 million) in southeastern China.

After moving across the South China Sea and making a turn toward the north, landfall is currently forecast to take place on Friday (U.S. time) as a category 2 typhoon.

Megi's First Landfall

Typhoon Megi underwent rapid intensification late Saturday night, and was classified as a "Super Typhoon." The tropical cyclone made landfall in the northern Philippines early Monday, and was later downgraded to a "Typhoon."

Megi (Korean for "catfish"), became the first tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Basin to achieve "Super Typhoon" status this year, with maximum sustained winds at least 150 mph. Late Sunday morning, peak sustained winds had reached an incredible 180 mph, with gusts estimated to 220 mph! This is easily Category 5 strength.

Its central pressure was measured by reconnaissance aircraft to have plunged as low as 893 mb. While reconnaissance is not routine for western Pacific tropical cyclones, this aircraft not only measured the incredible low pressure and high winds, but also witnessed lighting in the eyewall, a signature of an intensifying tropical cyclone.

The eye of Super Typhoon Megi taken 1:00 am EDT Sunday
Image: NASA MODIS

There have been only 3 Atlantic hurricanes on record with a lower central pressure than Megi:

• "Labor Day" (1935): 892 mb
• Gilbert (1988): 888 mb
• Wilma (2005): 882 mb
  

Megi's central pressure was lower than the following infamous hurricanes at their lowest pressure:

• Ivan ('04): 910 mb
• Camille ('69): 905 mb
• Katrina ('05): 902 mb
• Rita ('05): 895 mb
  

Typhoon Tip (1979) holds the record in any basin for the lowest recorded pressure, an incredible 870 mb, 12 mb lower than Wilma.

It had been quiet in the western Pacific Basin. According to Florida State University's Dr. Ryan Maue, prior to Megi's formation, 2010 season activity in the western Pacific had dipped to historic lows, with reliable records dating back to 1945.

There have been only 14 named storms, including Megi, in the western Pacific Basin so far this season. The least number in one season was 18 named storms in 1998.

Typhoon Megi eyes China coast, Hong Kong

* Rain tomorrow AM: Full Forecast | Climate poll cause for despair? *

Satellite image of Super Typhoon Megi and its projected track. Image courtesy University of Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

While no longer the freakish category 5 super typhoon that hammered the northern Philippines, Megi remains a formidable and expansive category 3 typhoon in the South China Sea. (The super typhoon designation is reserved for storms with sustained winds of 150 mph or higher, equivalent to a category 4 or 5 hurricane).

Packing winds of 115 mph, the U.S Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) tracks Megi on a course to make its second landfall very close to Hong Kong Friday into Saturday. However, there is significant uncertainty in the track - as shown by the large track cone (bounded by the yellow lines) in the image above - due to poor agreement among forecast models.

According to JTWC, conditions are favorable for Megi to strengthen over the next one to two days perhaps back to super typhoon intensity (category 4). After that, it is forecast to gradually weaken due to wind shear (changing of wind with height) that will interfere with the storm's circulation. Nonetheless, Megi is likely to be a devastating storm for coastal China. As meteorologist Jeff Masters at Wunderground wrote this morning:

... Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.

The toll inflicted on the northern Philippines by Megi is still being discovered but initial reports indicate at least 10 people were killed and that there was flooding and extensive wind damage.

Outdoing the images I posted last night, the University of Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies posted the following incredible satellite shots of Megi as it hit the Philippines on its blog. They were too dramatic not to republish below:

Visible satellite loop tracking the eye of Super Typhoon Megi as it made landfall across the northern portion of the island of Luzon in the Philippines. Image courtesy University of Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

A Terra MODIS infared image of Megi's eye and surrounding eyewall structure of Megi prior to landfall in the Philippines. Image courtesy University of Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

By Jason Samenow | October 19, 2010; 12:10 PM ET International Weather , Tropical Weather
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